Mekong Early Warning Systems: A Blend of Old and New

One of Southeast Asia’s lifelines, the Mekong River, sustains the lives and livelihoods of over 70 million people. However, in recent years, the Mekong Basin has faced increasingly frequent and intense floods and droughts that threaten surrounding communities, infrastructure, and economies exacerbated by climate change and hydropower developments upstream.

Improving early warning systems (EWS) is crucial for the resilience of the Mekong River against climate change, hydropower development, and socio-economic pressures. Another vital factor to EWS development is the incorporation of local knowledge and advanced technologies. These additions significantly improve the safeguarding of ecosystems and livelihoods in the region.

The increase in disaster preparedness and response capacities not only highlights the need for an EWS but also its additional capabilities, such as monitoring ecological health and sediment transport. This provides timely information notifications to enable farmers and fishers to make quick, informed decisions that minimize their losses during extreme weather events.

Challenges Faced by Mekong Basin Communities

While the Mekong Basin faces a variety of challenges throughout the year, the challenges are often related to floods and droughts. The challenges are also often interconnected and need a holistic and integrated approach to water resource management and disaster risk reduction. In fact, the average annual cost of floods in the Lower Mekong Basin ranges from US$60-70 million. The floods are also worsened by man-made infrastructure upstream, with dam operations causing irregular fluctuations in water levels and disrupting livelihoods. This is true, especially for fishers who face a decline in fish catches due to disrupted fish migration and reproductive cycles threatening their food security and earnings. 

During the drought season, from December to May, there are water shortages for domestic and agricultural use. Looking at the data, the impact of drought and saltwater intrusions is staggering. Droughts have impacted 58,000 hectares of rice, 6,650 hectares of fruit trees, 1,241 hectares of vegetables, and 8,715 hectares of aquaculture. Additionally, up to 96,000 households face water shortages. This number shows the extent of damage to crops and livelihoods but could also indicate weak water governance and unsustainable agricultural practices. It also shows the need to build long-term resilience to erratic floods and droughts in the Mekong Basin, and improving the early warning systems could be one of the key actions. 

Improving Early Warning Systems Can Enhance Resilience

Currently, there are a handful of projects and initiatives working towards flood and drought resilience in the Mekong Basin. The Mekong Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System provides forecasts on water levels and streamflow. The Mekong Dam Monitor initiative gives real-time tracking of dam operations and river flow. Both these systems serve as early warning tools for the Mekong community to use to get real-time information as well as access forecast information. 

Early warning systems enable communities to take proactive measures to protect their livelihoods. Authorities also benefit from these systems by implementing evacuation plans, mobilizing resources, and establishing emergency shelters in advance. 

Several technologies can be applied to improve EWS in the Mekong Basin, one of the most focused technologies to utilize is the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Using AI can improve predictive analytics, real-time data assessments, and communication of warnings for a start. In context, AI can be used to analyze data on vulnerable populations and infrastructure to improve risk assessments and target early warning messages. In addition, AI-powered flood forecasting models can provide highly accurate, localized predictions of extreme weather events, enabling timely alerts for communities at risk.

On the other end, we can also improve EWS without the costs of advanced technologies. This approach will lean more on community-based warning systems. Engaging local communities in the design and implementation of EWS ensures that warnings are relevant, understandable, and actionable. This can involve developing maps of flood risk showing flood heights, safe havens, and routes to safety, undertaking surveys of the vulnerability of people, and stimulating research and training in modern early warning science and technology.

Moving Forward: Bridging the Gap and Empowering Local Communities

Looking ahead, the future of flood and drought resilience in the Mekong Basin will depend on continued investments in EWS, regional cooperation, and community engagement. However, we must also look into the integration of community knowledge with scientific data to produce more accurately tailored forecasts that are tailored to the specific needs and contexts of communities in the Mekong Basin. Working towards applying both local knowledge and modern advanced systems, it's possible to develop solutions that are both effective and culturally appropriate. Communities living along the Mekong have accumulated invaluable knowledge about the river's behavior over generations. They understand its rhythms, seasonal variations, and warning signs of floods and droughts.

The challenge is to bridge the gap by integrating traditional knowledge with technology to produce a more holistic and comprehensive understanding of flood and drought risks in the region. Both forms of information can be complementary, and community knowledge can provide valuable ground-level details and context to complement scientific data and models. Lastly, this approach of integration empowers communities to take ownership of their own resilience. This should be done by providing guidance and accessibility. By combining their traditional knowledge with access to information and tools, they can make informed decisions and take effective action to protect themselves and their livelihoods.