Climate Futures: Uncertainty Lingers for Trump’s Second Term
Will President Trump continue with a lackluster agenda on climate change? How could his dynamic with Elon Musk alter his views on sustainability? Who will lead the gap left behind by the US leaving the Paris Agreement ? We discuss the possible events that could unfold.
President Trump’s possible climate agenda, or rather the lack thereof, raises critical questions about the outlook of climate policies and global environmental leadership. Trump’s previous term demonstrated a focus on traditional energy industries and deregulation, which contrasted starkly with the increasing global emphasis on sustainability. Despite his firm stance on his climate change views, one has to question whether his relationship with ally Elon Musk, a leader in electric vehicle (EV) innovation shifts the current trajectory of his climate policies. While their alliance could boost U.S. manufacturing, their divergent views on climate change might fuel a political power play rather than a unified push for sustainability.
Will Trump Continue His Climate Legacy?
During his first term, Trump championed an "America First" energy policy that rolled back over 100 environmental regulations. One of the main initiations was pushing the US out of the Paris Agreement on climate; Trump’s exit from the landmark climate accord signaled skepticism toward global environmental collaboration.
Another attribute of his previous terms was his support for Fossil Fuels. His administration opened federal lands to oil and gas exploration and extended support to coal industries. In effect, there were deregulations on environmental protections for air and water quality. These policies were weakened to prioritize business and economic interests, a common theme during his campaign and first term.
These decisions highlight Trump’s focus on economic growth and energy independence over long-term climate goals. For his second term, similar strategies could dominate his climate agenda, likely to the detriment of global sustainability initiatives. We already see it with his immediate withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement on his first day in office.
The Trump-Musk Dynamic: Complicated Alliances and Power Plays
The relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is both complex and consequential. On one hand, Trump’s pro-business stance and Musk’s entrepreneurial spirit could align to boost American manufacturing. On the other hand, their fundamental differences regarding climate change and Trump’s skepticism versus Musk’s commitment to sustainability can create the potential for conflict.
While Trump may not prioritize sustainability, his administration could view Tesla’s global EV dominance as a strategic asset. China’s rapid advancements in EV technology and its growing control over the global EV market might prompt Trump to double down on Tesla’s production capacity to outcompete Chinese manufacturers. There are potential channels that could be utilized to increase the US's hold on the global EV market.
First is Incentives or tariffs aimed at bolstering the U.S. EV exports. One of the main costs in manufacturing EV’s is the cost of its battery. Strategic investments in domestic battery manufacturing to reduce reliance on China could in turn reduce the prices of US-made EV vehicles. Lastly, by focusing on political positioning to elevate EV production as a matter of economic security, not environmental necessity could be a viewpoint more enticing for President Trump.
Domestic Impacts and Global Implications
Now in office, we can already clearly see the realignment of energy policies of the current administration. Federal support for renewable energy will diminish under Trump, with subsidies redirected toward traditional energy industries. However, the growing profitability of renewables in the private sector could maintain momentum, albeit slower.
Despite his climate skepticism, Trump might view EVs through a nationalist lens, positioning Tesla as a symbol of American innovation. This could paradoxically enhance U.S. EV production while de-emphasizing its sustainability aspects. States like California are likely to maintain their leadership in climate action. Their independent initiatives, such as aggressive clean energy targets, could counterbalance federal rollbacks.
China has established itself as a leader in EV production and renewable energy investments. A Trump-led U.S. might prioritize competing with China in these sectors, particularly EVs, as a matter of economic and geopolitical importance. This could result in the U.S. leveraging Tesla and other manufacturers to expand EV exports, potentially reshaping the global market dynamics.
The EU, with its ambitious Green Deal, could take the lead on international climate collaboration. It may also strengthen ties with emerging economies, filling the leadership void left by a U.S. retreat. Additionally, India’s solar ambitions and Brazil’s balanced approach to Amazon conservation and development could see these nations rising as key players in climate innovation.
Who Leads If the U.S. Steps Back?
As it is expected that the US will take a massive step back in the role of a big player in tackling climate issues, the question then becomes who will bear or take over the gap left behind? China has already surpassed the U.S. in renewable energy investments, holding the largest global share of solar and wind energy production. With Trump potentially stepping back from international commitments, China might strengthen its leadership through initiatives like the Belt and Road’s green transition.
The European Union’s Green Deal, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050, is also poised to fill the void in global climate leadership. The EU might enhance its partnerships with developing nations to spearhead sustainable projects previously championed by the U.S. Other contenders such as India, with its ambitious solar energy programs, and Brazil, balancing Amazon conservation with economic growth, could leverage the geopolitical gap left by the U.S. to attract international investment and bolster their roles as climate innovators.
Balancing Competing Priorities
The 47th presidency would likely bring a renewed emphasis on economic growth, trade protectionism, and energy independence. While this might hinder federal climate progress, it could simultaneously elevate the U.S.’s EV sector to compete with China. The relationship between Trump and Elon Musk will be pivotal, offering both challenges and opportunities for sustainability.
On the international stage, other nations, including China and the EU, are poised to capitalize on any U.S. retreat from climate leadership, potentially driving a more multipolar approach to global climate governance. In the end, the interplay of these forces will define not just the Trump era but the broader trajectory of climate action in the 21st century.
